Photos: Andy Lewis, Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire
Year after year, the narrative gets louder and louder about the diminishing value of running backs in today’s NFL. This has led to diminishing contract values across the position as teams have been convinced that granting a running back a second contract with significant value is unadvisable.
In an attempt to slay the dragon, over the offseason Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey met to discuss this suppressed market and potential solutions on fixing this. Not much, other than supporting one another, staying healthy, and increasing the level of play came out of the meeting, but Henry, Barkley, Jacobs, and Ekeler all signed with new teams and were looking to prove their worth elsewhere.
On average, running back production does drop with age. This isn’t unique to running backs, but the aging curve is most clear at that position.
From a Total Points perspective, this drop-off is apparent at the start of a running back’s second contract. At the age 26 season, running backs start to dip below 0 in Rusher Points Above Average and never get above the mark throughout the duration of their career. And this doesn’t account at all for the attrition of players leaving the player pool, who do so generally as below-average players.
On average, the production drops over time. This year, the problem is that we aren’t looking at average at the top of the running back totem pole.
Barkley (27), Henry (30), and Jacobs (26) are all having career years with Barkley on pace to surpass Eric Dickerson’s rushing record (with an extra game). All three signed with new teams over the offseason and are all focal points to their new offenses, a rare occurrence for free agent running backs.
How have these three made such a massive impact on their new teams? Let’s take a look!
An MVP…Running Back?
Not only has Saquon come to the Eagles and led the league in rushing thus far at 1,623 yards, but he is getting serious consideration for league MVP from the betting market. He currently sits as the second favorite behind only Josh Allen at +550 odds on FanDuel. He is also the odds-on favorite for Offensive Player of the Year at -450.
At this rate, Barkley is on pace for 2,122 yards, which would break Dickerson’s single season rushing record*. He has the most attempts in the league with 266 and also leads the league in yards per attempt at 6.1 (minimum 100 attempts).
In regards to Total Points, however, Saquon finds himself sitting at 14th in Rusher Points Above Average. Part of this low total can be attributed to his low broken and missed tackle rate which sits at only 10%, the 5th-lowest among RB’s with 100 carries.
The other factor contributing is how good his offensive line is. The Eagles O-line has accumulated the most run blocking Total Points and has the 3rd-lowest blown block percentage on run plays.
Saquon has accumulated outstanding production this season, and a lot of that has to do with the team around him. MVP will be tough with Allen playing as well as he is, but Offensive Player of the Year is well within his grasp.
King Henry
Somehow, someway, Derrick Henry might be having the best year of his career at age 30. He is averaging a career-best 5.9 yards per carry and is 3rd in the league in positive run percentage at 50%.
Additionally, Henry is 1st in Rushing Total Points and has proved his individual value beyond team success. The Ravens are a top 3 team when it comes to Run Blocking Total Points as well, but Henry’s 3.2 yards after contact per attempt and 19% broken and missed tackles per attempt percentage prove that he is still one of the best running backs in the league. He has also carried the ball about twice as often into a heavy box than into a light box, which is a much higher ratio than others we’re talking about.
He is not on pace to break Dickerson’s record like Saquon is, but he is on pace for an 1,800-yard season which would be the second-most yards gained of his career. He also leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns and can tie his career high if he can get one per game the rest of the season.
It is no secret what King Henry is all about, but the mystery remains how he can produce at such a high level at this stage of his career. Hopefully, cutting the signature dreads does not have any biblical effects on his powers.
Run Pack Run!
Josh Jacobs has come to Green Bay and provided stability and power to the Packers backfield, producing the 3rd-most rushing yards and 2nd-most Rushing Total Points so far this season. His elusiveness and power are also on display regularly, as he is in the Top 10 in yards after contact per attempt and broken and missed tackle rate.
The offense he is working in has also contributed to his success. His offensive line has been solid, ranking in the Top 10 in Run Blocking Total Points. The passing attack is also potent enough (Top 10 in EPA) to allow for more light boxes, and the Packers have the best rushing success rate against light boxes this year.
Jacobs will be an important piece of a potential Super Bowl push for the Packers down the stretch, ensuring balance and power from an offense that still has room to improve.
Honorable Mentions
Two other players worth noting:
James Conner is still humming at age 29 for the Cardinals. He is 7th in Rushing Total Points and is 2nd among running backs with a 25% broken and missed tackle rate.
David Montgomery, in his age 27 season, has fit into a prominent role with his second team in the Lions. “Knuckles” is tied for the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns and leads the league in positive run percentage.
Conclusion
The running-backs-don’t-matter crowd is really having a rough go of things in 2024. The three top rushers are all guys on their second contracts and one of them is looking to break the rushing record. There are plenty more that are making significant impacts on their respective teams as well.
Can we expect this phenomenon to happen in future years? If there is a focal point to add a talented running back when the rest of the roster is in place, then – as proven this year – there can be success. The fight against father time is always against us, and even more so for running backs.
However, they are beginning to fight back.
