Who uses their closers in tough situations?
August 1, 2008
Does it seem to you, like it seems to me, that the only way managers use their closers these days
is to start the ninth inning? Usually the best pitcher on the team is the closer. If I were managing, I'd use him
when it matters most, whether that's the ninth inning, eighth inning, or even the sixth inning. For example, it's a
key game and we're up 3-2. My starter gets me to the sixth, but he gives up a two-out double to put runners on
second and third. I want my best pitcher right there. He's much more valuable there than he would be to protect
what might become a three-run lead at the start of the ninth.
But that would be the rare early "closer" appearance. I could see where I'd use the closer often
in an eighth-inning tough situation, and often in the ninth after my second or third best reliever got in trouble
with a two-run or three-run lead.
For the record, here's the percentage of saves this year where the pitcher enters at the start of
the ninth inning (or the start of an extra inning).
Percentage of saves – pitcher enters at the start of the 9th inning (or the start of an extra
inning): 82 %
Here are the managers who use their closer most often in the toughest situations (enters the game
with the tying run on base):
| MLB Closers with Two or More Tough Save
Opportunities |
| Team |
Manager |
Closer |
Tough Saves |
Tough
Save Opps |
| Marlins |
Fredi Gonzalez |
Kevin Gregg |
4 |
4 |
| Astros |
Cecil Cooper
|
Jose Valverde
|
1 |
4 |
| Red Sox
|
Terry Francona |
Jonathan Papelbon
|
3 |
3 |
| Orioles
|
Dave Trembley |
George Sherrill |
2 |
3 |
| Nationals |
Manny Acta
|
Jon Rauch |
1 |
3 |
| Brewers |
Ned Yost |
Salomon Torres |
2 |
2 |
| Giants |
Bruce Bochy |
Brian Wilson |
2 |
2 |
| Athletics |
Bob Geren |
Huston Street |
1 |
2 |
Minimum: 10 Saves
Source: Baseball Info Solutions (through the games of Thursday, July 31,
2008)
The save became an official Major League Baseball statistic in 1969. We looked at Retrosheet
data back through 1974 to see the rise of the three-out save (regardless of whether or not they were the only
pitcher in that inning). The increase has been steady and strong over the years from a low of 16% to a high of 83%.
Here's a clear-cut case where the statistic is determining usage. Is that a win for us analytical types? Maybe
so, but I sure don't agree with it. The table below shows the percentage of all saves in a year that were three-out
saves:
| Year |
Pct. |
| 1974 |
17% |
1975 |
16% |
1976 |
19% |
1977 |
19% |
1978 |
19% |
1979 |
21% |
1980 |
18% |
1981 |
20% |
1982 |
21% |
1983 |
21% |
1984 |
24% |
1985 |
23% |
1986 |
25% |
1987 |
25% |
1988 |
30% |
1989 |
36% |
1990 |
39% |
1991 |
46% |
1992 |
50% |
1993 |
57% |
1994 |
57% |
1995 |
63% |
1996 |
61% |
1997 |
66% |
1998 |
66% |
1999 |
70% |
2000 |
65% |
2001 |
73% |
2002 |
76% |
2003 |
72% |
2004 |
75% |
2005 |
78% |
2006 |
79% |
2007 |
81% |
2008 |
83% |
